RUSSIA/UKRAINE CRISIS : TIT-FOR-TAT NOT A SOLUTION
By Lawal Sale
It wasn’t a surprise to witness an escalation in the more than two years of military conflict between Russia and Western backed Ukrainian forces.
Also, it wasn’t a surprise to see Ukraine firing missiles supplied to it by the Western powers just a few days after getting permission to use them deep into Russian territories.
Ukraine’s western partners have been reluctant in giving permission to Kiev to use its supplied ATCMS, Storm Shadow, Taurus cruise missiles ets, but in a surprise move, and days after his party and anointed candidate lost elections in the United States, President Joe Biden gave an express permission to President Vladimir Zelensky to use ATCMS deep into Russian territories.
Similarly, Britain Prime Minister Keir Starmer swiftly approved using British Storm Shadow on Russian territories.
All these happened in about 24 hours. Germany and France have not decided yet.
Time without number, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been sounding words of warning that allowing Ukraine authorities to use long-range missiles into Russian territories means the West is directly and openly getting involved into the war against his country.
President Putin while stating the basic principles for deterrence of a potential adversary from launching an aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies as top priorities of the state, said deterring an aggression shall be ensured by the entire combined military power of the Russian Federation, including its nuclear weapons.
Also, an aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation of or support from a nuclear state shall be considered as their joint assault.
As it was expected, in retaliation to Ukraines attacks on “deep” Russian territories, Russia fired its newest ever intermediate ballistic missile codenamed “Oreshnik” into the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.
Though analysts say Dnipro attack was just a test by Russia, the calibre of the missile shocked everyone and everywhere in Ukraine.
The Russian air strike which eyewitnesses described as unusual, triggered explosions that went on for hours. Oreshnik which means ‘Hazel nut tree’ or just a ‘nut’ is said to have the speed of more than 12,000 kmph and can hit multiple targets at the same time with near zero detection by air defences.
President Zelensky, in his reaction after the Dnipro attack, turned to his Western partners and called for “better air defences.”
This is a tit-for-tat war, so what was Mr. Zelensky thinking when he fired ATCMS and Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territories almost simultaneously?
Instead of continued escalation of the conflict by arming Ukraine with more lethal weapons, Zelensky and his Western partners should start drawing a peace plan that will bring an end to the unnecessary carnage between the two neighbours.
The use of new Oreshnik ballistic missiles by Russia means the war is taking a new dimension, and both Ukraine, its allies, and the world should know the dangers and find a lasting solution to the crisis before it turn out to WWIII.
It is most unfortunate that people on both sides in the Donbas region, and Ukraini are the ones at the receiving end and have been losing everything since the beginning of crisis.
It is worthy to note that, the Russia/Ukraine crisis did not start two years ago, it started almost immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 90’s, but most prominently the crisis degenerated in February 2014 after the western-led coup that culminated into what is today called “orange revolution”.
Though, there had been several peace efforts, including the ‘Minsk agreement’ of September 2014, but no result was achieved in all the peace efforts as a result of suspected interference by external forces.
Peace is better than missile exchanges.
*Lawal Sale is Abuja based Global Affairs Analyst (lawalmaida1@yahoo.com)*
